33. The Flaws With the Thesis that the Soviets Were About to Attack Germany in 1941
In 1941, the Red Army was in bad shape, and Stalin knew it. His 1930s Military Purge had wrecked the senior command: victims included 13 of 15 army commanders, 8 of the 9 most senior admirals, 50 of 57 corps commanders, 154 out of 186 division commanders, all 16 army commissars, and 25 of 28 corps commissars. The effects were witnessed in the Red Army’s dismal performance in the 1939-1940 Winter War against tiny Finland.
Between that and observing the frightening effects of the German blitzkrieg in Poland and the West, the Soviet military was in the midst of a massive overhaul in 1941, to modernize its obsolescent equipment and tactics. The Soviet leadership estimated that the modernization would last into 1943 or 1944 before the Red Army was capable of defending against a German attack and until 1945 or 1946 before the Soviets could attack the Germans.
