3. Historical Precedence
Over the past 500 years, there have been 16 instances where a rising power challenged an established one, with 12 resulting in war. For example, the early 20th-century rivalry between Britain and Germany led to World War I. Similarly, the United States’ emergence as a global power in the late 19th century challenged the United Kingdom’s dominance, yet this did not escalate into war (belfercenter.org).
