2. The Trap Defined
The Thucydides Trap refers to a situation where a rising power challenges a ruling one, often leading to conflict. This concept was popularized by Professor Graham Allison, who analyzed sixteen historical instances over the past 500 years where such rivalries occurred. In twelve of these cases, war ensued. Allison’s work underscores the importance of understanding this pattern to prevent future conflicts, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations (belfercenter.org).
