12 Momentous Cancelled Military Operations
12 Momentous Cancelled Military Operations

12 Momentous Cancelled Military Operations

Khalid Elhassan - August 29, 2017

12 Momentous Cancelled Military Operations
Nikita Khrushchev and Fidel Castro. Defense Media Network

Oplans 316 and 312 – US Invasion of Cuba in 1962

During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Pentagon urged President Kennedy to invade Cuba in order to remove Soviet nuclear missiles from the island, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff unanimously agreed that a full-scale invasion was the only solution. They presented the Presidents with two versions: Oplan 316 for a full invasion, and Oplan 312 for aerial strikes to take out the missiles, followed by an invasion if necessary. The hawks, led by Air Force General Curtis LeMay, had a clear preference for Oplan 316, as they contended that there was no guarantee that airstrikes alone would take out all the missiles, or that one or more of the missiles would not be fired at the US.

Planners expected 18,500 US casualties in the first ten days of the invasion, assuming no nuclear explosions. However, unbeknownst to planners, the Soviet forces in Cuba had tactical nuclear weapons, and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev had preauthorized the Soviet commander in Cuba to use tactical nukes at his discretion if he deemed it necessary. As the crisis intensified, Khrushchev withdrew release authority and forbade their use without his express permission. However, whether the modified orders would have been followed, is debatable.

In practice, tactical nukes were dispersed throughout Cuba to various Soviet units, under the physical control of officers as low down the chain of command as captains. Soviet forces had drilled in the use of those weapons as part of their defensive plan, and in the heat of battle, the custodians of those weapons would have been under intense pressure as they were subjected to overwhelming US aerial strikes, naval bombardment, and ground attacks. It is not difficult to envision a desperate local commander in such a scenario, perhaps cut off from communications with higher authority, resorting to the tactical nukes at hand to save his command, or at least ensure that its demise did not come cheap: the Red Army, with victory in WWII only 17 years in its past, did not lack military pride or an ethos of defiance unto death.

If the Soviets used nukes in Cuba, the US intended an overwhelming nuclear response. Things could easily have escalated from there to a full-blown nuclear exchange that would have devastated both countries and Europe, irradiated the Northern Hemisphere, and set humanity back centuries. Luckily, President Kennedy resisted the pressure from his generals and admirals and relying on diplomacy, back channels, and blockade, successfully diffused the crisis without triggering WWIII.

12 Momentous Cancelled Military Operations
North Vietnamese convoy on Ho Chi Minh Trail to South Vietnam. Thing Link

US Invasion of North Vietnam

During the Vietnam War, plans were drawn to end North Vietnamese infiltration into South Vietnam and support the insurgency there by taking out North Vietnam with a direct invasion. The plan, as described in On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War, by Harry G. Summers, was reminiscent of the Normandy invasion. It called for landing an airborne division to the north and west of Hanoi to block off the approaches to the Hanoi-Haiphong region, accompanied by a seaborne invasion with three amphibious divisions landed on beaches in the Haiphong area.

The Haiphong force would then drive onto and Hanoi and linkup up with the airborne troops there. With the Hanoi-Haiphong area secured, outside support would be drastically curtailed as two major railroads from China would be severed, the country’s main seaport would be in American hands, and the lines of communications to the south would be interdicted. Starved of Chinese and Soviet arms, ammunition, and supplies, and cut off from a steady infusion of North Vietnamese manpower, planners expected that organized armed resistance in South Vietnam would soon wane and collapse.

While the plan stood a high chance of success against the North Vietnamese, it was deemed too dangerous because China would likely join the fray. At the time, only 15 years had gone by since the Korean War. In that war, US and allied forces had pursued the routed North Koreans all the way to the Chinese border, based on the mistaken belief that China would do nothing. That led to the unpleasant surprise of the Chinese jumping in and pushing American forces all the way back to South Korea.

If China directly joined the war in response to a US invasion of North Vietnam, things could easily escalate from there into WWIII, with the Soviets getting dragged in. And unlike the situation during the Korean War, the US no longer held an overwhelming nuclear superiority, as the Soviets by the second half of the 1960s possessed thousands of nuclear warheads and the means of delivering them to targets in the US. American interests in Vietnam were simply not worth the risk, and so the planned invasion of Hanoi-Haiphong was never carried out.

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