Warfare History

History’s Biggest Close Calls: The Near-Misses That Could Have Changed the World

Darren - August 14, 2025

Throughout history, humanity has narrowly escaped events that could have dramatically altered the course of civilization. From the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis to the near-destruction of the Byzantine Empire, these pivotal moments underscore the fragility of our existence. Each close call serves as a testament to the unpredictable nature of history and the delicate balance between disaster and survival. Understanding these near-misses not only highlights our vulnerabilities but also emphasizes the importance of decisive action in the face of uncertainty (history.com).

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1. The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a pivotal moment during the Cold War, bringing the United States and the Soviet Union perilously close to nuclear conflict. The crisis began when American U-2 spy planes discovered Soviet nuclear missile installations in Cuba, just 90 miles off the coast of Florida. President John F. Kennedy responded by imposing a naval blockade, demanding the removal of the missiles. After intense negotiations, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev agreed to dismantle and remove the missiles in exchange for a U.S. public declaration not to invade Cuba. Additionally, the U.S. secretly agreed to remove its Jupiter missiles from Turkey, which were positioned near the Soviet border. This resolution marked a significant de-escalation in Cold War tensions and highlighted the critical importance of diplomatic communication in averting global catastrophe (history.state.gov).

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2. Stanislav Petrov’s Judgment (1983)

On September 26, 1983, Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov was on duty at the Oko nuclear early-warning system command center when it falsely detected incoming U.S. missiles. Despite protocol, Petrov judged the alarm a false alarm, preventing a potential nuclear conflict. His decision highlighted the fragility of Cold War systems and the critical role of human judgment in averting disaster (bbc.com).

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3. The Assassination Attempt on Archduke Franz Ferdinand (1914)

On June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, were assassinated in Sarajevo, an event that ignited World War I. Earlier that day, a failed bomb attempt had left the couple unharmed. However, a wrong turn in their motorcade led them directly to Gavrilo Princip, who seized the opportunity to fatally shoot them. This chance encounter underscores how a simple misstep can alter the course of history (history.com).

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4. Apollo 11’s Alarming Computer Glitch (1969)

During Apollo 11’s lunar descent, the lunar module’s guidance computer triggered unexpected 1201 and 1202 alarms, indicating overloads. These were caused by the rendezvous radar transmitting unnecessary data, straining the computer’s capacity. Mission Control, recalling prior simulations, assessed the alarms as non-critical and permitted the landing to proceed. This decisive judgment ensured Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin’s safe touchdown on the Moon (nasa.gov).

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5. The Black Brant Scare (1995)

On January 25, 1995, a Black Brant XII scientific rocket launched from Norway’s Andøya Rocket Range was misidentified by Russian radar as an incoming U.S. Trident missile. This led to a high-alert status within Russian nuclear forces, with President Boris Yeltsin activating the “nuclear briefcase” (Cheget). After consulting with military advisors and analyzing the situation, Yeltsin determined it was a false alarm, preventing a potential nuclear crisis (washingtonpost.com).

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6. Missed Shot in Dallas (1963)

On December 11, 1960, Richard Paul Pavlick, a 73-year-old former postal worker from New Hampshire, attempted to assassinate President-elect John F. Kennedy. Pavlick planned to detonate dynamite in his car, killing both himself and Kennedy. However, upon seeing Kennedy’s wife and children, he hesitated and abandoned the plan. He was arrested four days later after a traffic stop revealed the explosives. This incident underscores the razor-thin margin between survival and tragedy.

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7. False Alarm at Hawaii (2018)

On January 13, 2018, a false missile alert was sent to cellphones across Hawaii, warning of an incoming ballistic missile. This incident caused widespread panic and highlighted the need for improvements in emergency notification systems. Officials acknowledged the system’s shortcomings and emphasized the urgency of enhancing the accuracy and reliability of alert systems to prevent similar occurrences in the future (axios.com).

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8. The Berlin Wall’s Accidental Opening (1989)

On November 9, 1989, during a press conference, East German Politburo member Günter Schabowski announced that East Germans could apply for travel permits to West Germany. When asked when the new regulations would take effect, Schabowski, reading from his notes, replied, “As far as I know, effective immediately, without delay.” This unexpected statement led thousands of East Berliners to rush to border crossings, overwhelming guards who, lacking clear instructions, eventually allowed them to pass. This miscommunication resulted in the sudden and peaceful opening of the Berlin Wall, fundamentally reshaping Europe overnight (theworld.org).

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9. The Near-Miss at Three Mile Island (1979)

On March 28, 1979, the Three Mile Island Unit 2 reactor in Pennsylvania experienced a partial meltdown due to a combination of equipment failures and operator errors. The incident led to the release of a small amount of radioactive gases into the atmosphere, but no immediate health effects were observed. The crisis was narrowly averted, preventing a potentially catastrophic release of radiation (history.com).

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10. Turing and the U-boat Codes (1940s)

During World War II, Alan Turing and his team at Bletchley Park worked tirelessly to decrypt the German Enigma machine, which encrypted military communications. Their breakthrough in breaking the U-boat Enigma allowed the Allies to anticipate and counteract U-boat attacks, safeguarding vital supply lines across the Atlantic. This success is credited with shortening the war by up to two years and saving countless lives (bbc.com).

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11. Chernobyl’s Reactor 4 Shutdown Attempt (1986)

On April 25, 1986, operators at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant initiated a safety test on Reactor 4 to simulate a power outage. During the test, a sudden power drop occurred, leading to an uncontrollable reaction. In an attempt to shut down the reactor, operators pressed the emergency shutdown button, but due to design flaws, the reactor exploded, releasing massive radiation (nrc.gov).

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12. The Great Molasses Flood’s Barrier Failure (1919)

On January 15, 1919, a 50-foot-tall molasses storage tank in Boston’s North End ruptured, releasing 2.3 million gallons of molasses. The resulting wave, traveling at 35 mph, destroyed buildings, knocked over an elevated train, and caused 21 fatalities. The disaster led to significant changes in construction practices, including the requirement for professional certification for engineers and signatures and relevant calculations on building plans to ensure accountability for safety standards (time.com).

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13. The Discovery of Penicillin (1928)

In 1928, Scottish bacteriologist Alexander Fleming returned from vacation to find a Petri dish of Staphylococcus bacteria contaminated with mold. Observing that bacteria surrounding the mold were destroyed, he identified the mold as *Penicillium* and named the antibacterial substance it produced “penicillin.” This serendipitous discovery revolutionized medicine, leading to the development of antibiotics that have saved countless lives (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov).

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14. The Mount St. Helens Eruption Warnings (1980)

In April 1980, Mount St. Helens exhibited signs of imminent eruption, including increased seismic activity and a growing bulge on its north flank. Washington Governor Dixy Lee Ray declared a state of emergency and established a “red zone” around the volcano, restricting public access. These proactive measures, based on scientific vigilance, led to the evacuation of thousands, saving numerous lives before the catastrophic eruption on May 18, 1980 (usgs.gov).

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15. Operation Paul Bunyan and the Korean DMZ (1976)

On August 18, 1976, two U.S. Army officers were killed by North Korean soldiers in the Joint Security Area of the Korean Demilitarized Zone. In response, the U.S. and South Korean forces launched Operation Paul Bunyan on August 21, 1976, a show of force involving a convoy of vehicles and aircraft to cut down the tree that had been the focal point of the incident. This operation successfully de-escalated tensions and prevented further conflict.

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Too Close for Comfort: What These Near-Misses Teach Us

History often hinges on a delicate balance of luck, error, and human judgment. Incidents like the accidental discovery of penicillin by Alexander Fleming in 1928, where a mold contaminant led to a groundbreaking antibiotic, and the near-miss at Three Mile Island in 1979, where a nuclear meltdown was narrowly averted underscore how pivotal moments can pivot on the smallest decisions or chance occurrences. These events remind us that even minor actions or oversights can profoundly shape the course of history.

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